Recently while I attended the Mobile world Congress, I was left amazed at the scope of possibilities that the mobile market holds before the powers get settled and some company claims right to the throne. The time of PCs (and hence Microsoft monopoly) is gone, the market leader of the changed world order of tablets and smart phones remains disapproved.
Although iOS and Android are quickly gaining market share, while others look to find one game changing idea, the financial and marketing capabilities along with established ecosystem of each player takes care that no prediction can be made at ease. It is this sheer size of market disrupting capabilities of each player involved that makes it hard for audience to place their bets.
According to Gartner report, Android should experience a period of (continued) rapid growth, increasing its market share to 22.2 percent in 2011 and 29.6 percent in 2014. And that should put it within striking distance of Symbian, which Gartner claims will have seen its market share shrink to 30.2 percent by then.
Everything even…right? Not so easy.
An important assumption, was not included into making the report - “The fact that Nokia and Microsoft would be an alliance changes the power equation altogether. Shakespeare quoted once “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows”- Holds true till date.
To analyze the situation, first we must look into the terms of this partnership
Under the proposed partnership:
| • | Nokia would adopt Windows Phone as its principal smartphone strategy, innovating on top of the platform in areas such as imaging, where Nokia is a market leader. |
| • | Nokia would help drive the future of Windows Phone. Nokia would contribute its expertise on hardware design, language support, and help bring Windows Phone to a larger range of price points, market segments and geographies. |
| • | Nokia and Microsoft would closely collaborate on joint marketing initiatives and a shared development roadmap to align on the future evolution of mobile products. |
| • | Bing would power Nokia’s search services across Nokia devices and services, giving customers access to Bing’s next generation search capabilities. Microsoft adCenter would provide search advertising services on Nokia’s line of devices and services. |
| • | Nokia Maps would be a core part of Microsoft’s mapping services. For example, Maps would be integrated with Microsoft’s Bing search engine and adCenter advertising platform to form a unique local search and advertising experience |
| • | Nokia’s extensive operator billing agreements would make it easier for consumers to purchase Nokia Windows Phone services in countries where credit-card use is low. |
| • | Microsoft development tools would be used to create applications to run on Nokia Windows Phones, allowing developers to easily leverage the ecosystem’s global reach. |
| • | Nokia’s content and application store would be integrated with Microsoft Marketplace for a more compelling consumer experience. |
To get a better view into the direct benefits for each company through the partnership, I have prepared a table enlisting benefits for each company.
| Advantages for Microsoft | Advantages for Nokia |
| Nokia expertise on mobile phone market | Loads of dollars to pump up the ante |
| Nokia penetration and reach to the masses especially in developing economies | The Windows, Office and other Microsoft applications such as Mobile email |
| Nokia designs and UI capabilities | Microsoft research and innovation |
| | Mobile search and ad platform |
| | Leveraging the Microsoft ecosystem |
| | |
This means that the world’s largest mobile hardware seller loosing market due to lack of intuitiveness in its OS, partners with the world’s popular OS maker that was losing out on device sales.
Does this partnership make sense? …… Surely it does. A lot on bet for both companies
Will it succeed? ....let’s see. Both companies have not lot on stake but rather everything.
For the consumers, it’s a pleasant scenario, for the situation puts the ball into the hands of the consumers, in terms of choices they have. No company can afford to become complacent and hence this launches a perfect ground for innovation and for thriving startups.
As far as my verdict is concerned, I believe Android should become the No 1 platform soon, given to the openness of the platform, the growing enthusiasm and energy among developers and the goodwill enjoyed by Google among consumers. Communication service providers' (CSPs') marketing and vendor support for Android-based smartphones will drive the platform to the leadership position.
Mokia (Nokia+Microsoft) should finish a close second or rather be an alternative to Android in the market. Microsoft support and Nokia devices should make for a good handset. As smart phones mature enough to become alternatives to PCs, people will love to have their old foes – the Windows look and feel and Microsoft Office.
iOS shall remain at the same stature, what Apple has been in the PC market – an affluent yet niche player with market size more or less constant due to the loyalty it enjoys from its audience.
Blackberry- The future seems difficult for Blackberry (BB). The BB mail – its USP is already fragile now and its marketing campaign gives a confusing message. Are they trying to woo the punks? BB will need to make sure that its already acquired share of mind with business community does not decline.
To end, I remember a quote by Lily Tomlin
“Don't be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed.”
That’s what these companies should keep close to heart.
